"Финансова къща Логос-ТМ" АД

Hubris blinds oil bulls to downside risks

14.03.2016, 11:08:00 ч.

• Brent crude rises to above $40/barrel as market hopes on cuts rise • Hopes based on mooted talks between Saudi Arabia, Russia et al on cuts • Sentiment premature given June Opec meeting too early to assess Iran impact • Earlier moves depend on unlikely agreement with Tehran to cut back supply • Deal involving Tehran would still leave market fundamentally oversupplied • Move on cuts unlikely before December Opec meeting

China's PMI slip suggests poor growth reigns

10.02.2016, 09:41:00 ч.

• China's Manufacturing PMI at a three-year low, pointing to continued poor growth • PBoC maintains artificially low fix of the currency but offshore market not listening • Political risks remain high in Malaysia as the 1MDB saga continues

Russian market teeters at tipping point

10.02.2016, 09:21:00 ч.

• February starts on mildly positive note in Russian equity and FX markets • Equity investors dipping their toes again, FX players have gone long the rouble • Market seems to be precariously perched and vulnerable to oil and geopolitics • Russian bluechip index has outperformed ICE Brent index since around mid-October • Ukraine and Syria geopolitical risks cloud the horizon for investors in Russia

PBoC works hard to calm markets

27.01.2016, 11:45:00 ч.

• The PBoC tried to calm markets, but equity outflows continued • Fears of a liquidity squeeze in China before the Chinese New Year in February • India has been the market favourite in the region for some time • Lower oil prices will add to hopes that the Indian economy will perform better • Malaysia is headed for moderate growth in 2016

Rouble's a-plunging, and it's got further to go

22.01.2016, 10:14:00 ч.

• USDRUB hits plus 85 taking the pair well beyond the December 2014 crisis highs • Plunge in oil price of international benchmark Brent fuelling slide • Rouble's inextricable link to oil suggests slide has further to go • Russia facing tough choice over whether to embark on QE-type stimulus • Moscow may have to act if social costs of austerity become too high

The butterfly effect: how investments will react to US interest rate rise

17.12.2015, 10:16:00 ч.

The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the first time since 2006, a move that will affect almost every financial market in the world. It will also mark a divergence between the countries cutting interest rates; particularly Europe, Japan, China and even Australia. It will mean the world's largest economy is again the powerhouse for global growth. Australian Unity Investments chief executive officer David Bryant relates the US Federal Reserve to the butterfly effect. "The flap of a butterfly's wings here are potentially a tsunami somewhere else. The US dollar is the butterfly," he says. The absolute centre of the dartboard is US bonds and interest rates, the benchmark by which everything is priced, he says. A lift of the expected 25 basis points, increases cost of money in the US and therefore, change the value of everything else. We've taken a look at how markets have reacted to previous rate hikes, although conditions this time around are very different. The US is emerging from an historically low period of low rates and crisis measures to combat the global financial crisis, so past performance is at best a guide.

Outrageous predictions for 2016

17.12.2015, 10:07:00 ч.

Many years ago back in 1989 I wrote one of my first research reports and I made the call that USDDEM should trade all the way down to 1.23. It was an outrageous call and colleagues from back then still remind me when we meet (the dollar to the deutsche mark was trading in the high 1.60s at the time). Now it’s again time to call for 1.23 but this time in EURUSD.

14 Predictions for 2016 from the Brightest Minds in Finance

20.11.2015, 10:27:00 ч.

We are now just one big shock away from a global downturn, and the next one seems most likely to originate in China, where heavy debt, excessive investment, and population decline are combining to undermine growth, while relatively low-debt countries from Eastern Europe to South Asia look better positioned to weather the inevitable next turn in the cycle.

China Has a $1.2 Trillion Ponzi Finance Problem

20.11.2015, 10:22:00 ч.

Chinese borrowers are taking on record amounts of debt to repay interest on their existing obligations, raising the risk of defaults and adding pressure on policy makers to keep financing costs low.

Safe Haven Assets Are Starting to Look a Little Different

20.11.2015, 10:15:00 ч.

Faced with terrorist attacks in Paris and the possibility of an interest rate liftoff at the Federal Reserve, investors did something unexpected. They avoided rushing into traditional "safe haven" assets such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and the Swiss franc.